The Trump Effect: a ‘Nosedive’ in Travel to the U.S.

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Donald Trump. Love him or hate him—and the U.S. election results suggest you’re as likely to do one as the other—he’s become a fact of everyday life. And not just for Americans. His election has reverberated throughout the world.

Although it’s unclear exactly how, his policies regarding government regulation, trade, and immigration are sure to shake up the worlds of travel and tourism as well. A new study by travel-search company Kayak gives some early clues as to how the Trump Effect may play out in travel.

Analyzing its own search data, Kayak found that “demand for flights to the U.S. has nosedived since it was announced that Donald Trump has been elected the next U.S. president.”

Globally, demand for flights to the U.S. dropped a sobering 30 percent. Among U.K. residents, demand was off less, a 9 percent drop, but still significant since U.S. flights are normally among the most heavily searched by that group.

Kayak also found a notable increase in U.S. residents’ searching for flights out of the country following the election. Demand for flights to Russia was up 33 percent; flights to France were up 29 percent; U.K. flights were up 19 percent; and Canada flights increased by 15 percent. While some wags will attribute the uptick in outbound travel to Trump-haters fleeing his reach, Kayak sees it as no more than weary voters looking for relief after a particularly stressful election cycle.

Here’s how Kayak summarized the findings: “The data demonstrates that since the election result, demand and interest in going to the States really has nosedived—and the increase in searches from the U.S. would indicate that many who are currently based there are looking to get a break from reality.”

What the U.S. airlines will be looking at, of course, is the net effect: what happens to passenger numbers and yields when the increases and decreases are offset against each other.

For travelers, a net decrease in demand could spur fare wars, or at least a bit more competitive pressure to lower airfares. And a net increase would do the opposite. It remains to be seen, both short and long term.

Trump’s election also raises questions about the strength of the dollar, about the impact of border security on airport screening, about so many factors that will have an impact on travel over the next four years and beyond.

At this point, there are more questions than answers. But whatever it turns out to be, the Trump Effect is certain to be profound.

Reader Reality Check

How does Trump’s election affect your travel plans and expectations?

After 20 years working in the travel industry, and almost that long writing about it, Tim Winship knows a thing or two about travel. Follow him on Twitter @twinship.

This article first appeared on SmarterTravel.com, where Tim is Editor-at-Large.

Comments

  1. I will take this study with a grain of salt, this is low season in traveling so that would reflect a low inquiries and also with holiday season, low dollar and cheap airfare to Europe naturally more inquiries outbound. Trump has nothing to do with it, specially he was just elected a week ago and to have this study so soon wouldn’t be accurate. Just my 2 cents

  2. I’m not sure I believe such a short period of data research. There could be some effect but like the negative hype around Brexit it is likely self impacting. I would also wonder about any political motivations in regards to the political viewpoints of leadership at Kayak. Just makes me wonder.

  3. I live in Europe and travel to the US 4-5 times a year. I have put all my US travel for 2018 on hold till I can get a sense of how things will shape up under a Trump presidency. I know of others in Europe and Asia who are doing the same. Not enough data to draw and conclusions yet but I suspect some clear patterns linked to Trump becoming president will emerge in the coming months.

  4. While I doubt the conclusions from this very limited data, if I were a foreigner, I would not support the USA with my tourist dollars for the next 4/8 years. Corrupt/unqualified/racist/xenophobic president combined with most conservative VP in modern history (he supports gay conversion therapy for goodness sakes) combined with one cabinet member or close advisor after another leading the race to the bottom. The only thing that will take attention from the protests that Bannon is an anti-semite are now the protests that Sessions is a racist, which will likely be upstaged by the next appointment.

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